I’ve come to a different conclusion: I don’t think we’re in a bubble (which, paradoxically, maybe is the truest evidence we are).
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Ben Thompson
BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
Indeed, that’s probably the overhang that matters most of all: competition. Anthropic is fine with Anthropic being in the lead; anyone else requires government intervention.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
Once you have put all of your information into a personal agent and actually incorporated it into your day-to-day life, it is much more of a challenge to change to something else.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
Pure capability no longer translates directly into a moat.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
The fact of the matter is that LLMs are, if anything, too obsequious; there simply isn’t any evidence of LLMs having a will or operating with malevolence.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
Truly effective defense will mean truly trusting agents to act autonomously, but most companies won’t do that until they are forced to by regular and unremitting hacks by fully autonomous attackers.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
What this means is that model performance isn’t the only thing that matters: the integration between model and harness is where true agent differentiation is found.BlogWho's Afraid of Chinese Models?Jul 20, 2026
And, in the long run, this imperative to move up the stack does mean that frontier models are absolutely a threat to software providers, including Microsoft.BlogWho's Afraid of Chinese Models?Jul 20, 2026
Second, intelligence isn’t in fact a perfect commodity, in part because applied intelligence makes itself smarter.BlogWho's Afraid of Chinese Models?Jul 20, 2026
The long and short of it is this: marginal costs are back in a big way, both in terms of short-term implications of state-of-the-art free models, and in terms of the long-term structure of the industry.BlogWho's Afraid of Chinese Models?Jul 20, 2026
The reason this matters is that we are rapidly approaching a state in which intelligence for many economically beneficial tasks is in fact a commodity.BlogAgents Over BubblesMarch 2026
Agents, however, will tilt much more heavily towards pure acceleration, making those drivers of value much more impactful.BlogAgents Over BubblesMarch 2026
AI, however, not only gives the aforementioned excuse to undo that bloat, but also moves the “rightsize” point significantly towards a much smaller workforce.BlogAgents Over BubblesMarch 2026
The economic imperatives are going to be impossible to resist, and will fuel demand for even more compute over time, further supporting the case that this is no bubble.BlogAgents Over BubblesMarch 2026
Yes, AI still needs agency; it just doesn’t need agency from that many people for its impact to be profound.
On the same topics
BlogBanning self-recursive improvement in AI models?Sep 22, 2026
If the top U.S. labs have to give up on what is supposed to be really important, they will look very “catchable.” The policy creates a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.BlogWhy I still haven't bought into true RSISep 19, 2026
I have my doubts that the labs can afford to spend a constant portion of this compute on internal R&D as the total volume goes up, especially with plans to IPO, as they face increased scrutiny on basic economics.BlogWhy I still haven't bought into true RSISep 19, 2026
It is important to not confuse massive steps in inference-time scaling, a dynamic which should be fairly predictable, with being the outputs of RSI, which is highly uncertain.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Agent swarms, alignment, and recursive self-improvementSep 17, 2026
If you have five hours, you’re probably going to do a lot better. The AI models are pretty similar.BlogNo, Anderson Cooper, AI is not going to kill us allSep 10, 2026
But in my view, the net effect of the last decade of “Doomer” talk (Coxon appears to be a card-carrying member of that party) has been to make the Frontier AI companies wealthier and more powerful.BlogNo, Anderson Cooper, AI is not going to kill us allSep 10, 2026
Everytime they scream that AI is going to kill us all, VCs toss in billions more.
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