Dwarkesh Patel quote, Jul 29, 2026

Host, Dwarkesh Podcast · Jul 29, 2026 · Essay, Why compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years

If you’re spending most of your compute on inference, you’re kind of declaring that AI progress has stalled, because it’s not worth investing more in training, and your business is basically that of a cloud provider.

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Words found on the source page on Sep 25, 2026.

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Aug 7, 2026	Continual learning will create a clear moat for leading AI labs that they currently lack.Aug 7, 2026· Essay	Essay8 Predictions for the Era of Continual Learning	Source
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Aug 7, 2026	This is one of many reasons why I think it’s unwise to lock in some kind of regulatory safety regime right now. We simply don’t know what kind of technology we’re going to be looking at even in a year, let alone in five years or ten years, and we’d be entrenching an archaic and potentially counterproductive approach to dealing with the threats from AI.Aug 7, 2026· Essay	Essay8 Predictions for the Era of Continual Learning	Source
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Jul 29, 2026	I want to emphasize the key conclusion here: as AI models become smarter, they’ll better monetize the same amount of compute. If a true human-level software engineer that could run on an H100 equivalent, at current market rates for software engineers, that H100 should rent for over $250k a year.Jul 29, 2026· Essay	EssayWhy compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years	Source
Jul 29, 2026	I wish we didn’t live in a world with such strong economies of scale of intelligence (because I’m worried about power concentration).Jul 29, 2026· Essay	EssayWhy compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years	Source
Jul 29, 2026	If by 2028 we’ve automated software engineering and the price of compute is 15x higher than it is right now, then it’s going to be much more difficult for you, with no revenue, to compete for compute against the frontier labs.Jul 29, 2026· Essay	EssayWhy compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years	Source
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May 16, 2026	But in the real world, power is more the product of having the authority and trust to get lots of people to collaborate with you, rather than some galaxy brain scheming capability.May 16, 2026· Essay	EssayThe mistake of conflating intelligence and power	Source
May 16, 2026	I’m simply pointing out that the way AI systems are currently becoming smarter (by getting trained to be to be really good at specific economically valuable tasks like coding) is not that strongly correlated with power.May 16, 2026· Essay	EssayThe mistake of conflating intelligence and power	Source

Date	Quote	Context	Source
Sep 22, 2026	If the top U.S. labs have to give up on what is supposed to be really important, they will look very “catchable.” The policy creates a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.Tyler CowenSep 22, 2026· Post	PostBanning self-recursive improvement in AI models?	Source
Sep 21, 2026	A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure.Ben ThompsonSep 21, 2026· Post	PostFrontier Overhangs	Source
Sep 19, 2026	I have my doubts that the labs can afford to spend a constant portion of this compute on internal R&D as the total volume goes up, especially with plans to IPO, as they face increased scrutiny on basic economics.Nathan LambertSep 19, 2026· Post	PostWhy I still haven't bought into true RSI	Source
Sep 19, 2026	It is important to not confuse massive steps in inference-time scaling, a dynamic which should be fairly predictable, with being the outputs of RSI, which is highly uncertain.Nathan LambertSep 19, 2026· Post	PostWhy I still haven't bought into true RSI	Source
Sep 17, 2026	If you have five hours, you’re probably going to do a lot better. The AI models are pretty similar.Noam BrownSep 17, 2026· Interview	InterviewDwarkesh Podcast: Agent swarms, alignment, and recursive self-improvement	Source
Aug 26, 2026	AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue...Jensen HuangAug 26, 2026· Earnings	EarningsNVIDIA Q2 FY27 earnings release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)	Source

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Said by: Dwarkesh Patel, Host, Dwarkesh Podcast
Where: Why compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years
Topics: Compute
Source: dwarkesh.com/p/why-compute-might-get-10x-more-expensive

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