But the right tail of the market is thinner than almost anyone forecast.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Tomasz Tunguz
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AI customer retention sits between mobile games and social networks. Frontier models keep the crown for about 41 days, and the price of a given level of intelligence falls roughly 10x per year, giving buyers more leverage every cycle.
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A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
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I reckoned he’d love the technology as a productivity tool; he’d be skeptical about companies working together on any issue; and he’d be concerned about giving moral agency to machines.
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