Quotesby GlyphElad Gil quote, Feb 21, 2024
Investor · Feb 21, 2024 2 years ago · Blog, Things I Don't Know About AI
Things seem to be evolving towards the above: Frontier LLMs are likely to be an oligopoly market.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Elad Gil
- AI will first automate away the things that are easier to form a closed loop learning system on. This is why code and AI research may be accelerated and then displaced quickly - you can have testable closed loop systems so machines can learn and iterate quickly.
- Founders running successful AI companies should all take a cold hard look at exiting in the next 12-18 months, which may be a value maximizing moment for outcomes.
- If Anthropic and OpenAI hit $100B of revenue by EOY as many think they might, roughly 1% of GDP run rate will be from AI by end of 2026.
- Multiple later stage CEOs told me that rather then do big layoffs due to AI, they will just stop growing. So if revenue at the company is growing 30%, 50%, or 100%, headcount may be flat or slightly down as they allow attrition to shrink staff.
- The AI engineer of the future will be managing and orchestrating large numbers of agents to build things (systems and product thinking) vs writing a lot of code themselves (the auto-complete tab era).
- The top AI researchers became post-economic all at once. (Maybe the closest prior analogues is the early crypto HODLRs?).
- This means countries like India and the Philippines may be the most impacted soonest in terms of employment and AI as they house many of these outsourced services organizations. It also means some developing countries may lose their services ladder to upgrading their economy and work.
- While people will undoubtedly get more efficiency out of the compute they have, this artificial compute constraint may mean no one lab is able to break significantly ahead until 2028 at the soonest - re-enforcing an oligopoly market for LLMs.
- In the future, it is unlikely that many new core LLM companies will get started due to capital moats, barring some new breakthrough that somehow doesn’t spread quickly.
- Often, adoption of AI is not a technology problem – it is an organization, process, and people issue.
- We are starting to see the shift from selling seats, to selling units of cognition or human equivalent labor.
- Cloud providers are easily the biggest funders of foundation models, not venture capitalists.
On the same topics
- I have my doubts that the labs can afford to spend a constant portion of this compute on internal R&D as the total volume goes up, especially with plans to IPO, as they face increased scrutiny on basic economics.
- But in my view, the net effect of the last decade of “Doomer” talk (Coxon appears to be a card-carrying member of that party) has been to make the Frontier AI companies wealthier and more powerful.
- Everytime they scream that AI is going to kill us all, VCs toss in billions more.
- The narrow problem with that is that fiber construction was far ahead of demand, where AI compute construction is far behind demand, though, as above, we don’t know what that supply/demand balance will look like in the future.
- If you really like the ROIC [Return on Invested Capital] of a business, you want the ‘C’ to be as high as possible. It's not speculative...
- AI is entering a new era, and the countries that build the infrastructure for this transformation will shape the future of technology, industry and society...
About this quote
- Said by
- Elad Gil, Investor
- Where
- Things I Don't Know About AI
- Topics
- Investment
- Source
- blog.eladgil.com/p/things-i-dont-know-about-ai
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