Home Speakers Elad Gil Quote While people will undoubtedly get more efficiency out of the compute they have, this artificial compute constraint may mean no one lab is able to break significantly ahead until 2028 at the soonest - re-enforcing an oligopoly market for LLMs.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Elad Gil Blog Random thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier Apr 20, 2026
AI will first automate away the things that are easier to form a closed loop learning system on. This is why code and AI research may be accelerated and then displaced quickly - you can have testable closed loop systems so machines can learn and iterate quickly. Blog Random thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier Apr 20, 2026
Founders running successful AI companies should all take a cold hard look at exiting in the next 12-18 months, which may be a value maximizing moment for outcomes. Blog Random thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier Apr 20, 2026
If Anthropic and OpenAI hit $100B of revenue by EOY as many think they might, roughly 1% of GDP run rate will be from AI by end of 2026. Blog Random thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier Apr 20, 2026
Multiple later stage CEOs told me that rather then do big layoffs due to AI, they will just stop growing. So if revenue at the company is growing 30%, 50%, or 100%, headcount may be flat or slightly down as they allow attrition to shrink staff. Blog Random thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier Apr 20, 2026
The AI engineer of the future will be managing and orchestrating large numbers of agents to build things (systems and product thinking) vs writing a lot of code themselves (the auto-complete tab era). Blog Random thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier Apr 20, 2026
The top AI researchers became post-economic all at once. (Maybe the closest prior analogues is the early crypto HODLRs?). Blog Random thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier Apr 20, 2026
This means countries like India and the Philippines may be the most impacted soonest in terms of employment and AI as they house many of these outsourced services organizations. It also means some developing countries may lose their services ladder to upgrading their economy and work. Blog AI Market Clarity Jul 22, 2025
In the future, it is unlikely that many new core LLM companies will get started due to capital moats, barring some new breakthrough that somehow doesn’t spread quickly. Blog AI Market Clarity Jul 22, 2025
Often, adoption of AI is not a technology problem – it is an organization, process, and people issue. Blog AI Market Clarity Jul 22, 2025
We are starting to see the shift from selling seats, to selling units of cognition or human equivalent labor. Blog Things I Don't Know About AI Feb 21, 2024
Cloud providers are easily the biggest funders of foundation models, not venture capitalists. Blog Things I Don't Know About AI Feb 21, 2024
Things seem to be evolving towards the above: Frontier LLMs are likely to be an oligopoly market.
On the same topics Blog Banning self-recursive improvement in AI models? Sep 22, 2026
If the top U.S. labs have to give up on what is supposed to be really important, they will look very “catchable.” The policy creates a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. Blog Frontier Overhangs Sep 21, 2026
A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure. Blog Why I still haven't bought into true RSI Sep 19, 2026
I have my doubts that the labs can afford to spend a constant portion of this compute on internal R&D as the total volume goes up, especially with plans to IPO, as they face increased scrutiny on basic economics. Blog Why I still haven't bought into true RSI Sep 19, 2026
It is important to not confuse massive steps in inference-time scaling, a dynamic which should be fairly predictable, with being the outputs of RSI, which is highly uncertain. Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: Agent swarms, alignment, and recursive self-improvement Sep 17, 2026
If you have five hours, you’re probably going to do a lot better. The AI models are pretty similar. Filing NVIDIA Q2 FY27 earnings release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1) Aug 26, 2026
AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue... About this quote 
Quotesby Glyph