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David Cahn quote, Dec 3, 2025

Partner, Sequoia Capital · Dec 3, 2025 · Essay, AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs

My prediction, especially coming off of the successful Gemini 3 launch and hype around TPUs, is that the TSMC constraint could become material in 2026.

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Words found on the source page on Sep 25, 2026.

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On the same topics

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If the top U.S. labs have to give up on what is supposed to be really important, they will look very “catchable.” The policy creates a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.Tyler CowenSep 22, 2026· Post
A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure.Ben ThompsonSep 21, 2026· Post
I have my doubts that the labs can afford to spend a constant portion of this compute on internal R&D as the total volume goes up, especially with plans to IPO, as they face increased scrutiny on basic economics.Nathan LambertSep 19, 2026· Post
It is important to not confuse massive steps in inference-time scaling, a dynamic which should be fairly predictable, with being the outputs of RSI, which is highly uncertain.Nathan LambertSep 19, 2026· Post
If you have five hours, you’re probably going to do a lot better. The AI models are pretty similar.Noam BrownSep 17, 2026· Interview
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About this quote
Said by
David Cahn, Partner, Sequoia Capital
Where
AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs
Topics
Chips, Compute
Company
Sequoia Capital
Source
sequoiacap.com/article/ai-in-2026-the-tale-of-two-ais

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