Home Speakers David Cahn Quote But we need to make sure not to believe in the delusion that has now spread from Silicon Valley to the rest of the country, and indeed the world. That delusion says that we’re all going to get rich quick, because AGI is coming tomorrow, and we all need to stockpile the only valuable resource, which is GPUs.
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More from David Cahn Essay AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs Dec 3, 2025
Dwarkesh Patel’s recent podcast interviews with Richard Sutton, Andrej Karpathy, and Ilya Sutskever are a demarcating line; the new consensus is that the AGI window will be in the 2030s, at earliest. Essay AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs Dec 3, 2025
In 2026, we’re going to see the emergence of a $0 to $1B club. Essay AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs Dec 3, 2025
My prediction, especially coming off of the successful Gemini 3 launch and hype around TPUs, is that the TSMC constraint could become material in 2026. Essay AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs Dec 3, 2025
On the one hand, it will be a year of delays, first in data center buildouts, many of which will fall behind schedule, and second, in the AGI timeline. At the same time, AI adoption will continue its relentless rise. Essay AI's $600B Question Jun 20, 2024
AI’s $200B question is now AI’s $600B question. Essay AI's $600B Question Jun 20, 2024
GPU computing is increasingly turning into a commodity, metered per hour. Unlike the CPU cloud, which became an oligopoly, new entrants building dedicated AI clouds continue to flood the market. Without a monopoly or oligopoly, high fixed cost + low marginal cost businesses almost always see prices competed down to marginal cost (e.g., airlines).
On the same topics Blog Why I still haven't bought into true RSI Sep 19, 2026
I have my doubts that the labs can afford to spend a constant portion of this compute on internal R&D as the total volume goes up, especially with plans to IPO, as they face increased scrutiny on basic economics. Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: Agent swarms, alignment, and recursive self-improvement Sep 17, 2026
And actually the models today are far beyond what was possible even six months ago. Blog No, Anderson Cooper, AI is not going to kill us all Sep 10, 2026
But in my view, the net effect of the last decade of “Doomer” talk (Coxon appears to be a card-carrying member of that party) has been to make the Frontier AI companies wealthier and more powerful. Blog No, Anderson Cooper, AI is not going to kill us all Sep 10, 2026
Everytime they scream that AI is going to kill us all, VCs toss in billions more. Essay Ways to think about token pricing Jul 9, 2026
The narrow problem with that is that fiber construction was far ahead of demand, where AI compute construction is far behind demand, though, as above, we don’t know what that supply/demand balance will look like in the future. Press AWS CEO Matt Garman on why enterprise AI is finally delivering real returns (Platformer podcast) Jun 24, 2026
If you really like the ROIC [Return on Invested Capital] of a business, you want the ‘C’ to be as high as possible. It's not speculative... About this quote 
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