When I look at the graph, I feel a sense of vertigo, because I know a little bit about what underlies this graph.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Jack Clark
BlogImport AI 471: Why Hugging Face worriesAug 31, 2026
My worry is that AI systems are both better at coordinating than humans and also much, much faster moving than us.BlogImport AI 471: Why Hugging Face worriesAug 31, 2026
This means that space mining is a perfect business opportunity for superintelligences that come online - perhaps by 2033 we will see AI-run asteroid mining corporations, bidding on contracts that human-supervised companies are not willing to pursue, due to risk or complexity.TalkImport AI 458 / 2026 Cosmos HAI Lab Lecture, OxfordMay 26, 2026
It’s time to plan for this, because AI systems are likely to get better a lot faster than people expect, and as they become more advanced we should expect profound changes to happen to people and to society.TalkImport AI 458 / 2026 Cosmos HAI Lab Lecture, OxfordMay 26, 2026
That class of technology has never existed before, and yet I believe this could happen within the next two years, and possibly sooner.TalkImport AI 458 / 2026 Cosmos HAI Lab Lecture, OxfordMay 26, 2026
This significant increase in the automation of coding has been equivalent to dropping many, many more employees into Anthropic, speeding up our overall pace of development.TalkImport AI 458 / 2026 Cosmos HAI Lab Lecture, OxfordMay 26, 2026
We might soon be able to build an AI system that may be smart enough to develop its own successor, thus kicking off a process of recursive self-improvement which would utterly transform the economy and the broader world.BlogImport AI 456: RSI and economic growthMay 11, 2026
The surprising thing from my perspective is seeing the feedback across the whole economy, suggesting we might hit an ‘economic singularity’ as a consequence of broad diffusion of automation technologies into the economy.BlogImport AI 456: RSI and economic growthMay 11, 2026
This paper points to a future where we get rid of all the software underpinning computers in a traditional sense and just replace it with a gigantic neural network.
On the same topics
PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Agent swarms, alignment, and recursive self-improvementSep 17, 2026
And actually the models today are far beyond what was possible even six months ago.BlogUntitled post, April 2026Apr 10, 2026
My personal takeaway from the last several years, and take on why there has been so much Shakespearean drama between the companies in our field, comes down to this: “Once you see AGI you can’t unsee it.”BlogUntitled post, April 2026Apr 10, 2026
The only solution I can come up with is to orient towards sharing the technology with people broadly, and for no one to have the ring.InterviewBig Technology Podcast: Doubling Down on Text Models, The Superapp Plan, Codex's PotentialApr 7, 2026
And at this point we have line of sight to much better models that are coming this year, and the amount of pain within OpenAI that we’ve had to decide how to allocate compute goes up, not down, over time.BlogIs there an aggregate demand problem in an AGI world?Feb 24, 2026
If AI produces a lot more stuff, income is generated from that and the economy keeps going, whether or not the resulting distribution pleases your sense of morality.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: We are near the end of the exponentialFeb 13, 2026
I really do believe that we could have models that are a country of geniuses in the data center in one to two years.
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