Quotesby GlyphAGI quotes
63 quotes from 24 people
- And actually the models today are far beyond what was possible even six months ago.
- It’s time to plan for this, because AI systems are likely to get better a lot faster than people expect, and as they become more advanced we should expect profound changes to happen to people and to society.
+1more from this talk
- My personal takeaway from the last several years, and take on why there has been so much Shakespearean drama between the companies in our field, comes down to this: “Once you see AGI you can’t unsee it.”
+1more from this blog
- And at this point we have line of sight to much better models that are coming this year, and the amount of pain within OpenAI that we’ve had to decide how to allocate compute goes up, not down, over time.
- If AI produces a lot more stuff, income is generated from that and the economy keeps going, whether or not the resulting distribution pleases your sense of morality.
- I really do believe that we could have models that are a country of geniuses in the data center in one to two years.
+2more from this podcast
- AGI is the ability to figure things out. That’s it.
+1more from this essay
- An AI that can figure things out has some baseline knowledge (pre-training), the ability to reason over that knowledge (inference-time compute), and the ability to iterate its way to the answer (long-horizon agents).
+1more from this essay
- But surely the most important first order answer is: “With AGI, we don’t need to raise taxes!”
- I believe we are entering a rite of passage, both turbulent and inevitable, which will test who we are as a species.
+1more from this essay
- LLMs are emerging as a new kind of intelligence, simultaneously a lot smarter than I expected and a lot dumber than I expected.
+1more from this blog
- Dwarkesh Patel’s recent podcast interviews with Richard Sutton, Andrej Karpathy, and Ilya Sutskever are a demarcating line; the new consensus is that the AGI window will be in the 2030s, at earliest.
+1more from this essay
- If you think about the term “AGI”, especially in the context of pre-training, you will realize that a human being is not an AGI.
+1more from this podcast
- I’d argue that whether or not AGI emerges from a single model, the impact of this meta economic machinery is functionally similar. That is, it reduces a massively broad class of technical problems to simply a matter of economics.
- Today we’re taking another big step on the path toward AGI and releasing Gemini 3.
- In doing this we reject narratives about a race to AGI, and instead see it as part of a wider and deeply human endeavour to improve our lives and future prospects.
+1more from this essay
- In the blink of a cosmic eye, we passed the Turing test.
- And actually, I would be really worried for humanity given the other challenges that we have, climate, aging, resources, all of that if I didn’t know something like AI was coming down the line.
+2more from this podcast
- And I was expecting this because more and more people are finally realizing, leaders of companies, what I’ve always known for 30 plus years now, which is that AGI is the most important technology probably that’s ever going to be invented.
- I think there probably needs to be 10 times more effort of that than there is now as we are getting closer and closer to the AGI line.
- Every quote from Demis Hassabis
- In some big sense, ChatGPT is already more powerful than any human who has ever lived.
+1more from this blog
- I almost feel the term doesn’t matter, what I know is by 2030 there’ll be such dramatic progress. We’ll be dealing with the consequences of that progress, both the positive externalities and the negative externalities that come with it in a big way by 2030.
+2more from this podcast
- I don’t think we’ll quite get there by 2030, so my sense is it’s slightly after that, but I would stress it doesn’t matter what that definition is because you will have mind-blowing progress on many dimensions.
- I feel like we are in the AJI phase where dramatic progress, some things don’t work well, but overall you’re seeing lots of progress.
- Every quote from Sundar Pichai
- On a vast array of topics and methods, it wipes the floor with the humans.
- As I’ve argued in the past, AGI, however you define it, is not much of a social event per se. It still will take us a long time to use it properly.
- Us self-claiming some AGI milestone, that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me.
- AGI will be the biggest lever ever on human willfulness, and enable individual people to have more impact than ever before, not less.
+2more from this blog
- Anyone in 2035 should be able to marshall the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025; everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct however they can imagine.
- In a decade, perhaps everyone on earth will be capable of accomplishing more than the most impactful person can today.
- Every quote from Sam Altman
- We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies.
- Making AI that is smarter than almost all humans at almost all things will require millions of chips, tens of billions of dollars (at least), and is most likely to happen in 2026-2027.
- Passing ARC-AGI does not equate to achieving AGI, and, as a matter of fact, I don't think o3 is AGI yet. o3 still fails on some very easy tasks, indicating fundamental differences with human intelligence.
+1more from this blog
- I think that most people are underestimating just how radical the upside of AI could be, just as I think most people are underestimating how bad the risks could be.
- In less than ten years, AGI will be realized and drive the accelerated evolution of humanity.
- But we need to make sure not to believe in the delusion that has now spread from Silicon Valley to the rest of the country, and indeed the world. That delusion says that we’re all going to get rich quick, because AGI is coming tomorrow, and we all need to stockpile the only valuable resource, which is GPUs.
- Now LLMs have sucked the oxygen out of the room. Everyone is just doing LLMs. I see LLMs as more of an off-ramp on the path to AGI actually.
+1more from this podcast
- But right now, there are perhaps a few hundred people, most of them in San Francisco and the AI labs, that have situational awareness. Through whatever peculiar forces of fate, I have found myself amongst them.
- I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.
- If AGI came way sooner than expected we would definitely want to be careful about it.
- At the end of the day, we basically realized we've got to solve general intelligence and we just upped the ante and the investment to make sure that we could do that.
+1more from this podcast
- I’ve been hearing people for the last 12, 15 years claiming that AGI is just around the corner and being systematically wrong.
- So I wouldn’t be surprised if we had AGI-like systems within the next decade.
+1more from this podcast
- And so, yeah, I think there's a 50% chance that we have AGI by 2028.
+3more from this podcast
- I think we can start training models now with the scale of the data that is beyond what a human can experience in a lifetime. So I think this is the first unlocking step.
- I'm sure what's going to happen is we’re going to get to 2029 and someone's going to say, “Shane, you were wrong.”
- When I say AGI, I mean a machine that can do the sorts of cognitive things that people can typically do, possibly more.
- Every quote from Shane Legg