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Benedict Evans quote, Jul 9, 2026

Independent analyst · Jul 9, 2026 · Essay, Ways to think about token pricing

We knew the physical limits in ways we don’t really know with LLMs. Next month a new approach could cut inference compute needs by 90%, or double demand, or both.

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Words found on the source page on Sep 25, 2026.

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AI doesn’t change the question: it creates new choices and moves the thresholds.Sep 3, 2026· Essay
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Even so, that brings me back to the same point: the current market dynamics point to a future in which, as today’s supply crunch eases, frontier models move towards becoming commodity infrastructure, with all of the value built on top, and for a different outcome, something needs to happen that we don’t see yet.Jul 9, 2026· Essay
Meanwhile, there is structural uncertainty at the early stages of every big new technology, but the uncertainty now is different, because we don’t have a good theoretical understanding of why these models work so well and so we don’t know how much better they can get.Jul 9, 2026· Essay
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On the same topics

Quote
If the top U.S. labs have to give up on what is supposed to be really important, they will look very “catchable.” The policy creates a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.Tyler CowenSep 22, 2026· Post
A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure.Ben ThompsonSep 21, 2026· Post
I have my doubts that the labs can afford to spend a constant portion of this compute on internal R&D as the total volume goes up, especially with plans to IPO, as they face increased scrutiny on basic economics.Nathan LambertSep 19, 2026· Post
It is important to not confuse massive steps in inference-time scaling, a dynamic which should be fairly predictable, with being the outputs of RSI, which is highly uncertain.Nathan LambertSep 19, 2026· Post
If you have five hours, you’re probably going to do a lot better. The AI models are pretty similar.Noam BrownSep 17, 2026· Interview
AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue...Jensen HuangAug 26, 2026· Earnings
About this quote
Said by
Benedict Evans, Independent analyst
Where
Ways to think about token pricing
Topics
Compute
Source
ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2026/7/9/ways-to-think-about-token-pricing

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