We know, in principle, that like every other big wave of technology, AI is bound to destroy some jobs and create others.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Benedict Evans
EssayAI, tools and transformationSep 3, 2026
AI doesn’t change the question: it creates new choices and moves the thresholds.EssayAI, tools and transformationSep 3, 2026
But with every previous platform shift, the stuff that actually mattered was the stuff that wasn't even possible before and that no-one even imagined.EssayAI, tools and transformationSep 3, 2026
Instead of having to create those tools one at a time, software might be dynamic, generative, free-form, and spontaneous. Massively more tasks can be automated, with massively less software.EssayAI, tools and transformationSep 3, 2026
None of this is solved by making easier to write code - by making it easier to make tools. The hard part is knowing that you need a tool for this in the first place, and then knowing what the tool should do.EssayAI, tools and transformationSep 3, 2026
With every new technology, we start by using it for the work we already have, and we just do that more and faster.EssayWays to think about token pricingJul 9, 2026
But at one extreme, there are two or three giant minds that run half of everything and have massive pricing power, and at the other extreme LLMs look like databases - there’ll be millions of them, some very big and some very small, and the value is in what you build on top - after all, every SaaS company is a ’database wrapper’.EssayWays to think about token pricingJul 9, 2026
Even so, that brings me back to the same point: the current market dynamics point to a future in which, as today’s supply crunch eases, frontier models move towards becoming commodity infrastructure, with all of the value built on top, and for a different outcome, something needs to happen that we don’t see yet.EssayWays to think about token pricingJul 9, 2026
Meanwhile, there is structural uncertainty at the early stages of every big new technology, but the uncertainty now is different, because we don’t have a good theoretical understanding of why these models work so well and so we don’t know how much better they can get.EssayWays to think about token pricingJul 9, 2026
The narrow problem with that is that fiber construction was far ahead of demand, where AI compute construction is far behind demand, though, as above, we don’t know what that supply/demand balance will look like in the future.EssayWays to think about token pricingJul 9, 2026
We knew the physical limits in ways we don’t really know with LLMs. Next month a new approach could cut inference compute needs by 90%, or double demand, or both.
On the same topics
BlogThe OverhangSep 18, 2026
In fact, the new GPT-6 Astra and Fable 5.1 are already enough for transformative impact in large sections of the economy and they can reliably do weeks worth of human work when properly guided and harnessed.BlogThe OverhangSep 18, 2026
Making great things with AI means knowing which AI outputs to keep, which to discard, and which to use as raw material for something the AI would never have generated on its own.BlogThe OverhangSep 18, 2026
My point is that, while there is a lot of debate over what future models will do, the current capabilities of existing models are barely being used, and are often not even well understood.BlogThe OverhangSep 18, 2026
The capability overhang, the gap between what these models can do and what almost anyone is doing with them, is an opportunity because most people don't bring their own advantages to AI, and those who do get much more out of it.BlogThe OverhangSep 18, 2026
You are not trying to compete with AI in producing outputs, that is a losing game. Instead, you want to use your human advantages as basis of working with AI to do things that neither of you could do alone.BlogI do not want your brains to rotSep 17, 2026
Cognitive offloading is a strategic delegation that costs nothing. Cognitive surrender is something different; an uncritical abdication of reasoning itself. And there is something about AI, about its allure and potency, that could make surrender far more widespread.
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