Elad Gil quote, Feb 21, 2024

Investor · Feb 21, 2024 · Post, Things I Don't Know About AI

Things seem to be evolving towards the above: Frontier LLMs are likely to be an oligopoly market.

Words found on the source page on Sep 25, 2026.

More from Elad Gil

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Apr 20, 2026	AI will first automate away the things that are easier to form a closed loop learning system on. This is why code and AI research may be accelerated and then displaced quickly - you can have testable closed loop systems so machines can learn and iterate quickly.Apr 20, 2026· Post	PostRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier	Source
Apr 20, 2026	Founders running successful AI companies should all take a cold hard look at exiting in the next 12-18 months, which may be a value maximizing moment for outcomes.Apr 20, 2026· Post	PostRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier	Source
Apr 20, 2026	If Anthropic and OpenAI hit $100B of revenue by EOY as many think they might, roughly 1% of GDP run rate will be from AI by end of 2026.Apr 20, 2026· Post	PostRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier	Source
Apr 20, 2026	Multiple later stage CEOs told me that rather then do big layoffs due to AI, they will just stop growing. So if revenue at the company is growing 30%, 50%, or 100%, headcount may be flat or slightly down as they allow attrition to shrink staff.Apr 20, 2026· Post	PostRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier	Source
Apr 20, 2026	The AI engineer of the future will be managing and orchestrating large numbers of agents to build things (systems and product thinking) vs writing a lot of code themselves (the auto-complete tab era).Apr 20, 2026· Post	PostRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier	Source
Apr 20, 2026	The top AI researchers became post-economic all at once. (Maybe the closest prior analogues is the early crypto HODLRs?).Apr 20, 2026· Post	PostRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier	Source
Apr 20, 2026	This means countries like India and the Philippines may be the most impacted soonest in terms of employment and AI as they house many of these outsourced services organizations. It also means some developing countries may lose their services ladder to upgrading their economy and work.Apr 20, 2026· Post	PostRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier	Source
Apr 20, 2026	While people will undoubtedly get more efficiency out of the compute they have, this artificial compute constraint may mean no one lab is able to break significantly ahead until 2028 at the soonest - re-enforcing an oligopoly market for LLMs.Apr 20, 2026· Post	PostRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI Frontier	Source
Jul 22, 2025	In the future, it is unlikely that many new core LLM companies will get started due to capital moats, barring some new breakthrough that somehow doesn’t spread quickly.Jul 22, 2025· Post	PostAI Market Clarity	Source
Jul 22, 2025	Often, adoption of AI is not a technology problem – it is an organization, process, and people issue.Jul 22, 2025· Post	PostAI Market Clarity	Source
Jul 22, 2025	We are starting to see the shift from selling seats, to selling units of cognition or human equivalent labor.Jul 22, 2025· Post	PostAI Market Clarity	Source
Feb 21, 2024	Cloud providers are easily the biggest funders of foundation models, not venture capitalists.Feb 21, 2024· Post	PostThings I Don't Know About AI	Source

Date	Quote	Context	Source
Sep 19, 2026	I have my doubts that the labs can afford to spend a constant portion of this compute on internal R&D as the total volume goes up, especially with plans to IPO, as they face increased scrutiny on basic economics.Nathan LambertSep 19, 2026· Post	PostWhy I still haven't bought into true RSI	Source
Sep 10, 2026	But in my view, the net effect of the last decade of “Doomer” talk (Coxon appears to be a card-carrying member of that party) has been to make the Frontier AI companies wealthier and more powerful.Gary MarcusSep 10, 2026· Post	PostNo, Anderson Cooper, AI is not going to kill us all	Source
Sep 10, 2026	Everytime they scream that AI is going to kill us all, VCs toss in billions more.Gary MarcusSep 10, 2026· Post	PostNo, Anderson Cooper, AI is not going to kill us all	Source
Jul 9, 2026	The narrow problem with that is that fiber construction was far ahead of demand, where AI compute construction is far behind demand, though, as above, we don’t know what that supply/demand balance will look like in the future.Benedict EvansJul 9, 2026· Essay	EssayWays to think about token pricing	Source
Jun 24, 2026	If you really like the ROIC [Return on Invested Capital] of a business, you want the ‘C’ to be as high as possible. It's not speculative...Matt GarmanJun 24, 2026· Statement	StatementAWS CEO Matt Garman on why enterprise AI is finally delivering real returns (Platformer podcast)	Source
May 31, 2026	AI is entering a new era, and the countries that build the infrastructure for this transformation will shape the future of technology, industry and society...Masayoshi SonMay 31, 2026· Statement	StatementSoftBank Group to Build 5 GW of AI Data Center Capacity in France (SoftBank press release)	Source

About this quote

Said by: Elad Gil, Investor
Where: Things I Don't Know About AI
Topics: Investment
Source: blog.eladgil.com/p/things-i-dont-know-about-ai

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