If given 100 years to diffuse into society, its impacts will certainly become much more obvious, like the industrial revolutions of centuries past.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Nathan Lambert
BlogThe current balance of power in open modelsSep 21, 2026
Since about April 2025, Chinese AI companies have been the clear leader in open-weight models.BlogThe current balance of power in open modelsSep 21, 2026
The simple metric showing this is Hugging Face Downloads, where China took the lead in July of 2025 primarily through the success of Alibaba’s Qwen models.BlogWhy I still haven't bought into true RSISep 19, 2026
I have my doubts that the labs can afford to spend a constant portion of this compute on internal R&D as the total volume goes up, especially with plans to IPO, as they face increased scrutiny on basic economics.BlogWhy I still haven't bought into true RSISep 19, 2026
It is important to not confuse massive steps in inference-time scaling, a dynamic which should be fairly predictable, with being the outputs of RSI, which is highly uncertain.BlogWhy I still haven't bought into true RSISep 19, 2026
The step from this anxiety, and incidents like OpenAI-HuggingFace, to extinction risks feels very religious.BlogWhen will average people feel AI's impact?Sep 9, 2026
For knowledge work, which is roughly half of the U.S. economy, AI is as fundamental as electricity (or quickly will be so, with rapid improvements to agents in the next 18 months).Blog6 months to live for open modelsJul 12, 2026
Open models lack the central economic champion to represent the potential downside of action against them.Blog6 months to live for open modelsJul 12, 2026
The most serious test to date of open source AI’s viability is happening right now.Blog6 months to live for open modelsJul 12, 2026
The primary driver motivating regulation today is the inevitable truth that an open-weights model will soon reach the capabilities of Claude’s Mythos model.
On the same topics
BlogThe Most Important Market in AI is the MiddleSep 23, 2026
But the right tail of the market is thinner than almost anyone forecast.BlogThe Most Important Market in AI is the MiddleSep 23, 2026
Demand for intelligence is not a pyramid with a small, wealthy peak paying for everything beneath it.BlogThe Most Important Market in AI is the MiddleSep 23, 2026
Most business AI use is the messy middle: multi-step workflows that need a smart enough model at a price a company can afford. It is the most important part of the market today, & it is where the competition is fiercest.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
Pure capability no longer translates directly into a moat.BlogAI Comes for the If StatementSep 21, 2026
If this is the first of many primitives specialized for production, then harnesses are about to capture a lot more margin.
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