BlogThe Reverse Information ParadoxJul 12, 2026
If learning flows in only one direction, economic value converges toward the owners of the learning infrastructure rather than the creators of the knowledge itself.BlogThe Reverse Information ParadoxJul 12, 2026
In the AI age, the buyer risks giving away knowledge, just in order to use what they bought. You essentially pay for intelligence twice, once with money, and again with something even more valuable: the proprietary knowledge you must reveal to make that intelligence useful.BlogThe Reverse Information ParadoxJul 12, 2026
In the cloud era, enterprises accumulated data. In the AI era, they accumulate learning.BlogA frontier without an ecosystem is not stableJun 14, 2026
Every company is going to have to build what I think of as human capital and token capital.BlogA frontier without an ecosystem is not stableJun 14, 2026
If all the value is accrued by only a few models, the political economy will simply not tolerate it. There is no societal permission for an AI future that hollows out entire industries.BlogA frontier without an ecosystem is not stableJun 14, 2026
Without human direction, you have compute running in circles.BlogA frontier without an ecosystem is not stableJun 14, 2026
You can offload a task, or even a job, but you can never offload your learning. The future of the firm is the ability to compound that learning across people and AI.FilingMicrosoft FY26 Q3 earnings release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)Apr 29, 2026
We are focused on delivering cloud and AI infrastructure and solutions that empower every business to eval-max their outcomes in the agentic computing era...BlogLooking Ahead to 2026Dec 29, 2025
For AI to have societal permission it must have real world eval impact. The choices we make about where we apply our scarce energy, compute, and talent resources will matter.BlogLooking Ahead to 2026Dec 29, 2025
We have moved past the initial phase of discovery and are entering a phase of widespread diffusion. We are beginning to distinguish between “spectacle” and “substance”.BlogLooking Ahead to 2026Dec 29, 2025
We will evolve from models to systems when it comes to deploying AI for real world impact.BlogLooking Ahead to 2026Dec 29, 2025
What matters is not the power of any given model, but how people choose to apply it to achieve their goals.PodcastCheeky Pint with John Collison: Satya Nadella on lessons from Microsoft history for the AI boomNov 18, 2025
I would’ve not thought, none of us thought that somehow this AI thing and a deep neural network at some scaling will suddenly become the thing that figures out the patterns, not some schematized data model.PodcastCheeky Pint with John Collison: Satya Nadella on lessons from Microsoft history for the AI boomNov 18, 2025
So my new concept is the future of a company is that company has its own foundation model that captures essentially the tacit knowledge that makes the transactional costs of how knowledge gets accrued and diffused inside the organization faster.PodcastCheeky Pint with John Collison: Satya Nadella on lessons from Microsoft history for the AI boomNov 18, 2025
The product that is the bottleneck is just a bunch of powered-up shells, right?BlogPositive Sum FutureNov 15, 2025
Bill famously said a platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it exceeds the value of the company that creates it. That’s the essence of the positive-sum future.BlogPositive Sum FutureNov 15, 2025
Of course, the real test of this era won’t be when another tech company breaks a valuation record. It will be when the overall economy and society themselves reach new heights.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, How Microsoft is preparing for AGINov 12, 2025
At least the early signs maybe, the way to think about the per-user business is not just per user, it’s per agent.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, How Microsoft is preparing for AGINov 12, 2025
In fact, I kind of look at it and say that our business, which today is an end-user tools business, will become essentially an infrastructure business in support of agents doing work.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, How Microsoft is preparing for AGINov 12, 2025
It won’t be a wrapper on a model, but the model will be wrapped into the application.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, How Microsoft is preparing for AGINov 12, 2025
Sometimes I describe it as the cable TV of all these AI agents because I’ll have, essentially packaged into one subscription, Codex, Claude, Cognition stuff, anyone’s agents, Grok, all of them will be there.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, How Microsoft is preparing for AGINov 12, 2025
Structurally, I think there will always be an open source model that will be fairly capable in the world that you could then use, as long as you have something that you can use that with, which is data and a scaffolding.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, How Microsoft is preparing for AGINov 12, 2025
You kind of need to build an infrastructure that’s capable of supporting multiple families and lineages of models. Otherwise the capital you put in, which is optimized for one model architecture, means you’re one tweak away, some MoE -like breakthrough that happens, and your entire network topology goes out of the window.LetterMicrosoft Annual Report 2025, Shareholder LetterOctober 2025
And just last month, we announced the world’s most powerful AI datacenter, Fairwater in southeastern Wisconsin, which will deliver 10x the performance of the world’s fastest supercomputer today.LetterMicrosoft Annual Report 2025, Shareholder LetterOctober 2025
Imagine a world where every person can get help from a researcher, a coder, or an analyst on demand. Not just information, but deep, contextual expertise paired with action.LetterMicrosoft Annual Report 2025, Shareholder LetterOctober 2025
More than any transformation before it, this generation of AI is radically changing every layer of the tech stack, and we are changing with it.LetterMicrosoft Annual Report 2025, Shareholder LetterOctober 2025
To succeed, we must continue to think in decades but execute in quarters, approaching each day with the humility and curiosity required to continuously improve, while being guided by our bold vision for the future.FilingMicrosoft fiscal 2025 fourth quarter resultsJul 30, 2025
Cloud and AI is the driving force of business transformation across every industry and sector...PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, Microsoft's AGI plan and quantum breakthroughFeb 19, 2025
I do think the SaaS applications that exist today, these CRUD applications, are going to fundamentally be changed because the business logic will go more into this agentic tier.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, Microsoft's AGI plan and quantum breakthroughFeb 19, 2025
I think that in order to have a stable social structure, and democracies function, you can’t just have a return on capital and no return on labor.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, Microsoft's AGI plan and quantum breakthroughFeb 19, 2025
In fact that’s the thing, a lot of people are writing about it, and I'm glad they are, which is the big winners here are not going to be tech companies. The winners are going to be the broader industry that uses this commodity that, by the way, is abundant. Suddenly productivity goes up and the economy is growing at a faster rate.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, Microsoft's AGI plan and quantum breakthroughFeb 19, 2025
So basically, think of it as: there is knowledge work, and there's a knowledge worker. The knowledge work may be done by many, many agents, but you still have a knowledge worker who is dealing with all the knowledge workers.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, Microsoft's AGI plan and quantum breakthroughFeb 19, 2025
Structurally, hyperscale will never be a winner-take-all because buyers are smart.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, Microsoft's AGI plan and quantum breakthroughFeb 19, 2025
The only thing that's going to happen with all the compute builds is the prices are going to come down.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, Microsoft's AGI plan and quantum breakthroughFeb 19, 2025
This is why we like the analogy of thinking of this as the transistor moment of quantum computing, where we effectively have a new phase, which is the topological phase, which means we can even now reliably hide the quantum information, measure it, and we can fabricate it.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, Microsoft's AGI plan and quantum breakthroughFeb 19, 2025
Today, you cannot deploy these intelligences unless and until there's someone indemnifying it as a human.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, Microsoft's AGI plan and quantum breakthroughFeb 19, 2025
Us self-claiming some AGI milestone, that's just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Satya Nadella, Microsoft's AGI plan and quantum breakthroughFeb 19, 2025
When you think of an AI agent, it turns out the AI agent is going to exponentially increase compute usage because you're not even bound by just one human invoking a program.
Quotesby Glyph