Home Speakers Benedict Evans Quote The narrow problem with that is that fiber construction was far ahead of demand, where AI compute construction is far behind demand, though, as above, we don’t know what that supply/demand balance will look like in the future.
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More from Benedict Evans Essay AI, tools and transformation Sep 3, 2026
AI doesn’t change the question: it creates new choices and moves the thresholds. Essay AI, tools and transformation Sep 3, 2026
But with every previous platform shift, the stuff that actually mattered was the stuff that wasn't even possible before and that no-one even imagined. Essay AI, tools and transformation Sep 3, 2026
Instead of having to create those tools one at a time, software might be dynamic, generative, free-form, and spontaneous. Massively more tasks can be automated, with massively less software. Essay AI, tools and transformation Sep 3, 2026
None of this is solved by making easier to write code - by making it easier to make tools. The hard part is knowing that you need a tool for this in the first place, and then knowing what the tool should do. Essay AI, tools and transformation Sep 3, 2026
With every new technology, we start by using it for the work we already have, and we just do that more and faster. Essay Ways to think about token pricing Jul 9, 2026
But at one extreme, there are two or three giant minds that run half of everything and have massive pricing power, and at the other extreme LLMs look like databases - there’ll be millions of them, some very big and some very small, and the value is in what you build on top - after all, every SaaS company is a ’database wrapper’. Essay Ways to think about token pricing Jul 9, 2026
Even so, that brings me back to the same point: the current market dynamics point to a future in which, as today’s supply crunch eases, frontier models move towards becoming commodity infrastructure, with all of the value built on top, and for a different outcome, something needs to happen that we don’t see yet. Essay Ways to think about token pricing Jul 9, 2026
Meanwhile, there is structural uncertainty at the early stages of every big new technology, but the uncertainty now is different, because we don’t have a good theoretical understanding of why these models work so well and so we don’t know how much better they can get. Essay Ways to think about token pricing Jul 9, 2026
We knew the physical limits in ways we don’t really know with LLMs. Next month a new approach could cut inference compute needs by 90%, or double demand, or both. Essay Predicting AI job exposure May 24, 2026
We know, in principle, that like every other big wave of technology, AI is bound to destroy some jobs and create others.
On the same topics Blog Banning self-recursive improvement in AI models? Sep 22, 2026
If the top U.S. labs have to give up on what is supposed to be really important, they will look very “catchable.” The policy creates a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute. Blog Frontier Overhangs Sep 21, 2026
A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure. Blog Why I still haven't bought into true RSI Sep 19, 2026
I have my doubts that the labs can afford to spend a constant portion of this compute on internal R&D as the total volume goes up, especially with plans to IPO, as they face increased scrutiny on basic economics. Blog Why I still haven't bought into true RSI Sep 19, 2026
It is important to not confuse massive steps in inference-time scaling, a dynamic which should be fairly predictable, with being the outputs of RSI, which is highly uncertain. Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: Agent swarms, alignment, and recursive self-improvement Sep 17, 2026
If you have five hours, you’re probably going to do a lot better. The AI models are pretty similar. Blog No, Anderson Cooper, AI is not going to kill us all Sep 10, 2026
But in my view, the net effect of the last decade of “Doomer” talk (Coxon appears to be a card-carrying member of that party) has been to make the Frontier AI companies wealthier and more powerful. About this quote 
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