But with every previous platform shift, the stuff that actually mattered was the stuff that wasn't even possible before and that no-one even imagined.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Benedict Evans
EssayAI, tools and transformationSep 3, 2026
AI doesn’t change the question: it creates new choices and moves the thresholds.EssayAI, tools and transformationSep 3, 2026
Instead of having to create those tools one at a time, software might be dynamic, generative, free-form, and spontaneous. Massively more tasks can be automated, with massively less software.EssayAI, tools and transformationSep 3, 2026
None of this is solved by making easier to write code - by making it easier to make tools. The hard part is knowing that you need a tool for this in the first place, and then knowing what the tool should do.EssayAI, tools and transformationSep 3, 2026
With every new technology, we start by using it for the work we already have, and we just do that more and faster.EssayWays to think about token pricingJul 9, 2026
But at one extreme, there are two or three giant minds that run half of everything and have massive pricing power, and at the other extreme LLMs look like databases - there’ll be millions of them, some very big and some very small, and the value is in what you build on top - after all, every SaaS company is a ’database wrapper’.EssayWays to think about token pricingJul 9, 2026
Even so, that brings me back to the same point: the current market dynamics point to a future in which, as today’s supply crunch eases, frontier models move towards becoming commodity infrastructure, with all of the value built on top, and for a different outcome, something needs to happen that we don’t see yet.EssayWays to think about token pricingJul 9, 2026
Meanwhile, there is structural uncertainty at the early stages of every big new technology, but the uncertainty now is different, because we don’t have a good theoretical understanding of why these models work so well and so we don’t know how much better they can get.EssayWays to think about token pricingJul 9, 2026
The narrow problem with that is that fiber construction was far ahead of demand, where AI compute construction is far behind demand, though, as above, we don’t know what that supply/demand balance will look like in the future.EssayWays to think about token pricingJul 9, 2026
We knew the physical limits in ways we don’t really know with LLMs. Next month a new approach could cut inference compute needs by 90%, or double demand, or both.EssayPredicting AI job exposureMay 24, 2026
We know, in principle, that like every other big wave of technology, AI is bound to destroy some jobs and create others.
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I believe we’ll look back on the week of 6th September as the moment we felt the curve of AI turn upwards and strain many of our previously held assumptions.EssayDoes AI spell the end for humanity's win-win era?Sep 8, 2026
In fact, it’s pretty clear that AI is the only technology that makes a highly complex but still somehow coordinated planet even thinkable.EssayMaking Startups PowerfulSeptember 2026
You own the customer relationship, and the model companies are in effect component suppliers. The question is how easy it would be for them to engulf you, or even your customers.FilingApple Q3 FY26 earnings release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)Jul 30, 2026
At WWDC26, we were thrilled to introduce the all-new Siri AI, alongside all of Apple’s latest software innovations and important new child safety features.FilingIBM Q2 2026 earnings release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)Jul 22, 2026
We fundamentally believe that we are in the early innings of a structural shift for business, and that our portfolio - across software, infrastructure, and consulting - is well-positioned to help our clients tap the value, and manage the challenges, of an AI-driven future...BlogWho's Afraid of Chinese Models?Jul 20, 2026
And, in the long run, this imperative to move up the stack does mean that frontier models are absolutely a threat to software providers, including Microsoft.
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