Meaning, five years from now, my prediction is we will launch and be operating every year more AI in space than the cumulative total on Earth.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Elon Musk
PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be spaceFeb 5, 2026
But I think China’s going to be making pretty compelling chips in three or four years.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be spaceFeb 5, 2026
In 36 months, but probably closer to 30 months, the most economically compelling place to put AI will be space.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be spaceFeb 5, 2026
My guess is that people start getting to the point where they can’t turn the chips on for large clusters towards the end of this year. The chips are going to be piling up and won’t be able to be turned on.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be spaceFeb 5, 2026
The limiting factor once you can get to space is chips, but the limiting factor before you can get to space is power.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be spaceFeb 5, 2026
The output of chips is growing pretty much exponentially, but the output of electricity is flat.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be spaceFeb 5, 2026
Truth has to be absolutely fundamental because you can’t understand the universe if you’re delusional.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be spaceFeb 5, 2026
Well, I’d be surprised by the end of this year if digital human emulation has not been solved.
On the same topics
BlogBanning self-recursive improvement in AI models?Sep 22, 2026
If the top U.S. labs have to give up on what is supposed to be really important, they will look very “catchable.” The policy creates a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure.BlogWhy I still haven't bought into true RSISep 19, 2026
I have my doubts that the labs can afford to spend a constant portion of this compute on internal R&D as the total volume goes up, especially with plans to IPO, as they face increased scrutiny on basic economics.BlogWhy I still haven't bought into true RSISep 19, 2026
It is important to not confuse massive steps in inference-time scaling, a dynamic which should be fairly predictable, with being the outputs of RSI, which is highly uncertain.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: Agent swarms, alignment, and recursive self-improvementSep 17, 2026
If you have five hours, you’re probably going to do a lot better. The AI models are pretty similar.FilingNVIDIA Q2 FY27 earnings release (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)Aug 26, 2026
AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue...
About this quote
- Said by
- Elon Musk, CEO, Tesla and xAI
- Where
- Dwarkesh Podcast: In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space
- Topics
- Compute
- Company
xAI- Source
- dwarkesh.com/p/elon-musk
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