By 28/29 the intelligence explosion will be underway; by 2030, we will have summoned superintelligence, in all its power and might.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Leopold Aschenbrenner
EssaySituational Awareness: The Decade AheadJun 4, 2024
But right now, there are perhaps a few hundred people, most of them in San Francisco and the AI labs, that have situational awareness. Through whatever peculiar forces of fate, I have found myself amongst them.EssaySituational Awareness IV: The ProjectJun 4, 2024
By the early 2030s, the entirety of the US arsenal (like it or not, the bedrock of global peace and security) will probably be obsolete.EssaySituational Awareness IIIa: Racing to the Trillion-Dollar ClusterJun 4, 2024
Do we really want the infrastructure for the Manhattan Project to be controlled by some capricious Middle Eastern dictatorship?EssaySituational Awareness: The Decade AheadJun 4, 2024
Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into ≤1 year.EssaySituational Awareness I: From GPT-4 to AGIJun 4, 2024
I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.EssaySituational Awareness: The Decade AheadJun 4, 2024
Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters.EssaySituational Awareness IIIa: Racing to the Trillion-Dollar ClusterJun 4, 2024
The trillion-dollar, 100GW cluster alone would require ~20% of current US electricity generation in 6 years; together with large inference capacity, demand will be multiples higher.EssaySituational Awareness IV: The ProjectJun 4, 2024
Ultimately, my main claim here is descriptive: whether we like it or not, superintelligence won’t look like an SF startup, and in some way will be primarily in the domain of national security.EssaySituational Awareness IIIa: Racing to the Trillion-Dollar ClusterJun 4, 2024
White-collar workers are paid tens of trillions of dollars in wages annually worldwide; a drop-in remote worker that automates even a fraction of white-collar/cognitive jobs (imagine, say, a truly automated AI coder) would pay for the trillion-dollar cluster.
On the same topics
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Muse is one of the most important products we’ve built for the era of personal superintelligence.UnverifiedBlogWe Must Pace The FrontierSep 14, 2026
If you are relying on anything remotely like ‘automated alignment evals’ against potential superintelligences, I predict that you are rather cooked.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: AI researchers debate how close we are to recursive self-improvementSep 11, 2026
Right now, you don’t get explosive growth in capabilities because you still get bottlenecked enough when you’re trying to do research and engineering.EssayWe Must Pace the FrontierSeptember 2026
My first concern is that, since roughly this summer, AI has been advancing drastically faster, driven primarily by AI’s growing ability to build the next generation of AI.BlogImport AI 471: Why Hugging Face worriesAug 31, 2026
This means that space mining is a perfect business opportunity for superintelligences that come online - perhaps by 2033 we will see AI-run asteroid mining corporations, bidding on contracts that human-supervised companies are not willing to pursue, due to risk or complexity.TalkImport AI 458 / 2026 Cosmos HAI Lab Lecture, OxfordMay 26, 2026
That class of technology has never existed before, and yet I believe this could happen within the next two years, and possibly sooner.
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