Quotesby GlyphSituational Awareness leaders on AI, quotes with sources
10 quotes from Leopold Aschenbrenner
- But right now, there are perhaps a few hundred people, most of them in San Francisco and the AI labs, that have situational awareness. Through whatever peculiar forces of fate, I have found myself amongst them.
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- Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into ≤1 year.
- Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters.
- Every quote from Leopold Aschenbrenner
- By 28/29 the intelligence explosion will be underway; by 2030, we will have summoned superintelligence, in all its power and might.
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- By the early 2030s, the entirety of the US arsenal (like it or not, the bedrock of global peace and security) will probably be obsolete.
- Ultimately, my main claim here is descriptive: whether we like it or not, superintelligence won’t look like an SF startup, and in some way will be primarily in the domain of national security.
- Every quote from Leopold Aschenbrenner
- Do we really want the infrastructure for the Manhattan Project to be controlled by some capricious Middle Eastern dictatorship?
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- The trillion-dollar, 100GW cluster alone would require ~20% of current US electricity generation in 6 years; together with large inference capacity, demand will be multiples higher.
- White-collar workers are paid tens of trillions of dollars in wages annually worldwide; a drop-in remote worker that automates even a fraction of white-collar/cognitive jobs (imagine, say, a truly automated AI coder) would pay for the trillion-dollar cluster.
- Every quote from Leopold Aschenbrenner
- I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.
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