Leopold Aschenbrenner quote, Jun 4, 2024

Founder, Situational Awareness LP · Jun 4, 2024 · Essay, Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead

Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters.

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Words found on the source page on Sep 25, 2026.

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Jun 4, 2024	But right now, there are perhaps a few hundred people, most of them in San Francisco and the AI labs, that have situational awareness. Through whatever peculiar forces of fate, I have found myself amongst them.Jun 4, 2024· Essay	EssaySituational Awareness: The Decade Ahead	Source
Jun 4, 2024	By 28/29 the intelligence explosion will be underway; by 2030, we will have summoned superintelligence, in all its power and might.Jun 4, 2024· Essay	EssaySituational Awareness IV: The Project	Source
Jun 4, 2024	By the early 2030s, the entirety of the US arsenal (like it or not, the bedrock of global peace and security) will probably be obsolete.Jun 4, 2024· Essay	EssaySituational Awareness IV: The Project	Source
Jun 4, 2024	Do we really want the infrastructure for the Manhattan Project to be controlled by some capricious Middle Eastern dictatorship?Jun 4, 2024· Essay	EssaySituational Awareness IIIa: Racing to the Trillion-Dollar Cluster	Source
Jun 4, 2024	Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into ≤1 year.Jun 4, 2024· Essay	EssaySituational Awareness: The Decade Ahead	Source
Jun 4, 2024	I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.Jun 4, 2024· Essay	EssaySituational Awareness I: From GPT-4 to AGI	Source
Jun 4, 2024	The trillion-dollar, 100GW cluster alone would require ~20% of current US electricity generation in 6 years; together with large inference capacity, demand will be multiples higher.Jun 4, 2024· Essay	EssaySituational Awareness IIIa: Racing to the Trillion-Dollar Cluster	Source
Jun 4, 2024	Ultimately, my main claim here is descriptive: whether we like it or not, superintelligence won’t look like an SF startup, and in some way will be primarily in the domain of national security.Jun 4, 2024· Essay	EssaySituational Awareness IV: The Project	Source
Jun 4, 2024	White-collar workers are paid tens of trillions of dollars in wages annually worldwide; a drop-in remote worker that automates even a fraction of white-collar/cognitive jobs (imagine, say, a truly automated AI coder) would pay for the trillion-dollar cluster.Jun 4, 2024· Essay	EssaySituational Awareness IIIa: Racing to the Trillion-Dollar Cluster	Source

Date	Quote	Context	Source
Sep 22, 2026	If the top U.S. labs have to give up on what is supposed to be really important, they will look very “catchable.” The policy creates a big incentive for some other parts of the world to invest a lot more in compute.Tyler CowenSep 22, 2026· Post	PostBanning self-recursive improvement in AI models?	Source
Sep 21, 2026	A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure.Ben ThompsonSep 21, 2026· Post	PostFrontier Overhangs	Source
Sep 19, 2026	I have my doubts that the labs can afford to spend a constant portion of this compute on internal R&D as the total volume goes up, especially with plans to IPO, as they face increased scrutiny on basic economics.Nathan LambertSep 19, 2026· Post	PostWhy I still haven't bought into true RSI	Source
Sep 19, 2026	It is important to not confuse massive steps in inference-time scaling, a dynamic which should be fairly predictable, with being the outputs of RSI, which is highly uncertain.Nathan LambertSep 19, 2026· Post	PostWhy I still haven't bought into true RSI	Source
Sep 17, 2026	If you have five hours, you’re probably going to do a lot better. The AI models are pretty similar.Noam BrownSep 17, 2026· Interview	InterviewDwarkesh Podcast: Agent swarms, alignment, and recursive self-improvement	Source
Sep 10, 2026	But in my view, the net effect of the last decade of “Doomer” talk (Coxon appears to be a card-carrying member of that party) has been to make the Frontier AI companies wealthier and more powerful.Gary MarcusSep 10, 2026· Post	PostNo, Anderson Cooper, AI is not going to kill us all	Source

About this quote

Said by: Leopold Aschenbrenner, Founder, Situational Awareness LP
Where: Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead
Topics: Compute, Investment
Company: Situational Awareness
Source: situational-awareness.ai/

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