If Anthropic and OpenAI hit $100B of revenue by EOY as many think they might, roughly 1% of GDP run rate will be from AI by end of 2026.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Elad Gil
BlogRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI FrontierApr 20, 2026
AI will first automate away the things that are easier to form a closed loop learning system on. This is why code and AI research may be accelerated and then displaced quickly - you can have testable closed loop systems so machines can learn and iterate quickly.BlogRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI FrontierApr 20, 2026
Founders running successful AI companies should all take a cold hard look at exiting in the next 12-18 months, which may be a value maximizing moment for outcomes.BlogRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI FrontierApr 20, 2026
Multiple later stage CEOs told me that rather then do big layoffs due to AI, they will just stop growing. So if revenue at the company is growing 30%, 50%, or 100%, headcount may be flat or slightly down as they allow attrition to shrink staff.BlogRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI FrontierApr 20, 2026
The AI engineer of the future will be managing and orchestrating large numbers of agents to build things (systems and product thinking) vs writing a lot of code themselves (the auto-complete tab era).BlogRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI FrontierApr 20, 2026
The top AI researchers became post-economic all at once. (Maybe the closest prior analogues is the early crypto HODLRs?).BlogRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI FrontierApr 20, 2026
This means countries like India and the Philippines may be the most impacted soonest in terms of employment and AI as they house many of these outsourced services organizations. It also means some developing countries may lose their services ladder to upgrading their economy and work.BlogRandom thoughts while gazing at the misty AI FrontierApr 20, 2026
While people will undoubtedly get more efficiency out of the compute they have, this artificial compute constraint may mean no one lab is able to break significantly ahead until 2028 at the soonest - re-enforcing an oligopoly market for LLMs.BlogAI Market ClarityJul 22, 2025
In the future, it is unlikely that many new core LLM companies will get started due to capital moats, barring some new breakthrough that somehow doesn’t spread quickly.BlogAI Market ClarityJul 22, 2025
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We are starting to see the shift from selling seats, to selling units of cognition or human equivalent labor.BlogThings I Don't Know About AIFeb 21, 2024
Cloud providers are easily the biggest funders of foundation models, not venture capitalists.BlogThings I Don't Know About AIFeb 21, 2024
Things seem to be evolving towards the above: Frontier LLMs are likely to be an oligopoly market.
On the same topics
BlogThe Most Important Market in AI is the MiddleSep 23, 2026
But the right tail of the market is thinner than almost anyone forecast.BlogThe Most Important Market in AI is the MiddleSep 23, 2026
Demand for intelligence is not a pyramid with a small, wealthy peak paying for everything beneath it.BlogThe Most Important Market in AI is the MiddleSep 23, 2026
Most business AI use is the messy middle: multi-step workflows that need a smart enough model at a price a company can afford. It is the most important part of the market today, & it is where the competition is fiercest.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
Pure capability no longer translates directly into a moat.BlogAI Comes for the If StatementSep 21, 2026
If this is the first of many primitives specialized for production, then harnesses are about to capture a lot more margin.
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