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Leopold Aschenbrenner quote, Jun 4, 2024

Founder, Situational Awareness LP · Jun 4, 2024 · Essay, Situational Awareness IV: The Project

By 28/29 the intelligence explosion will be underway; by 2030, we will have summoned superintelligence, in all its power and might.

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Words found on the source page on Sep 25, 2026.

More from Leopold Aschenbrenner

Quote
But right now, there are perhaps a few hundred people, most of them in San Francisco and the AI labs, that have situational awareness. Through whatever peculiar forces of fate, I have found myself amongst them.Jun 4, 2024· Essay
By the early 2030s, the entirety of the US arsenal (like it or not, the bedrock of global peace and security) will probably be obsolete.Jun 4, 2024· Essay
Do we really want the infrastructure for the Manhattan Project to be controlled by some capricious Middle Eastern dictatorship?Jun 4, 2024· Essay
Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, compressing a decade of algorithmic progress (5+ OOMs) into ≤1 year.Jun 4, 2024· Essay
I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.Jun 4, 2024· Essay
Over the past year, the talk of the town has shifted from $10 billion compute clusters to $100 billion clusters to trillion-dollar clusters.Jun 4, 2024· Essay
The trillion-dollar, 100GW cluster alone would require ~20% of current US electricity generation in 6 years; together with large inference capacity, demand will be multiples higher.Jun 4, 2024· Essay
Ultimately, my main claim here is descriptive: whether we like it or not, superintelligence won’t look like an SF startup, and in some way will be primarily in the domain of national security.Jun 4, 2024· Essay
White-collar workers are paid tens of trillions of dollars in wages annually worldwide; a drop-in remote worker that automates even a fraction of white-collar/cognitive jobs (imagine, say, a truly automated AI coder) would pay for the trillion-dollar cluster.Jun 4, 2024· Essay

On the same topics

Quote
If you are relying on anything remotely like ‘automated alignment evals’ against potential superintelligences, I predict that you are rather cooked.Zvi MowshowitzSep 14, 2026· Post
Right now, you don’t get explosive growth in capabilities because you still get bottlenecked enough when you’re trying to do research and engineering.John SchulmanSep 11, 2026· Interview
My first concern is that, since roughly this summer, AI has been advancing drastically faster, driven primarily by AI’s growing ability to build the next generation of AI.Dario AmodeiSeptember 2026· Essay
This means that space mining is a perfect business opportunity for superintelligences that come online - perhaps by 2033 we will see AI-run asteroid mining corporations, bidding on contracts that human-supervised companies are not willing to pursue, due to risk or complexity.Jack ClarkAug 31, 2026· Post
That class of technology has never existed before, and yet I believe this could happen within the next two years, and possibly sooner.Jack ClarkMay 26, 2026· Keynote
We might soon be able to build an AI system that may be smart enough to develop its own successor, thus kicking off a process of recursive self-improvement which would utterly transform the economy and the broader world.Jack ClarkMay 26, 2026· Keynote
About this quote
Said by
Leopold Aschenbrenner, Founder, Situational Awareness LP
Where
Situational Awareness IV: The Project
Topics
Superintelligence
Company
Situational Awareness
Source
situational-awareness.ai/the-project/

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