Home Speakers David Cahn Quote Dwarkesh Patel’s recent podcast interviews with Richard Sutton, Andrej Karpathy, and Ilya Sutskever are a demarcating line; the new consensus is that the AGI window will be in the 2030s, at earliest.
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More from David Cahn Essay AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs Dec 3, 2025
In 2026, we’re going to see the emergence of a $0 to $1B club. Essay AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs Dec 3, 2025
My prediction, especially coming off of the successful Gemini 3 launch and hype around TPUs, is that the TSMC constraint could become material in 2026. Essay AI in 2026: A Tale of Two AIs Dec 3, 2025
On the one hand, it will be a year of delays, first in data center buildouts, many of which will fall behind schedule, and second, in the AGI timeline. At the same time, AI adoption will continue its relentless rise. Essay AI's $600B Question Jun 20, 2024
AI’s $200B question is now AI’s $600B question. Essay AI's $600B Question Jun 20, 2024
But we need to make sure not to believe in the delusion that has now spread from Silicon Valley to the rest of the country, and indeed the world. That delusion says that we’re all going to get rich quick, because AGI is coming tomorrow, and we all need to stockpile the only valuable resource, which is GPUs. Essay AI's $600B Question Jun 20, 2024
GPU computing is increasingly turning into a commodity, metered per hour. Unlike the CPU cloud, which became an oligopoly, new entrants building dedicated AI clouds continue to flood the market. Without a monopoly or oligopoly, high fixed cost + low marginal cost businesses almost always see prices competed down to marginal cost (e.g., airlines).
On the same topics Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: Agent swarms, alignment, and recursive self-improvement Sep 17, 2026
And actually the models today are far beyond what was possible even six months ago. Talk Import AI 458 / 2026 Cosmos HAI Lab Lecture, Oxford May 26, 2026
It’s time to plan for this, because AI systems are likely to get better a lot faster than people expect, and as they become more advanced we should expect profound changes to happen to people and to society. Talk Import AI 458 / 2026 Cosmos HAI Lab Lecture, Oxford May 26, 2026
When I look at the graph, I feel a sense of vertigo, because I know a little bit about what underlies this graph. Blog Untitled post, April 2026 Apr 10, 2026
My personal takeaway from the last several years, and take on why there has been so much Shakespearean drama between the companies in our field, comes down to this: “Once you see AGI you can’t unsee it.” Blog Untitled post, April 2026 Apr 10, 2026
The only solution I can come up with is to orient towards sharing the technology with people broadly, and for no one to have the ring. Interview Big Technology Podcast: Doubling Down on Text Models, The Superapp Plan, Codex's Potential Apr 7, 2026
And at this point we have line of sight to much better models that are coming this year, and the amount of pain within OpenAI that we’ve had to decide how to allocate compute goes up, not down, over time. About this quote 
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