I feel like we can’t just unilaterally slow down and have China go take the lead.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Daniel Kokotajlo
BlogSenate Testimony Sept 2026Oct 2, 2026
They’ll be reliant on AI-generated explanations to understand what’s happening, and everything will be happening faster and faster.UnverifiedPodcastDwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel KokotajloApr 3, 2025
But I think that I’ve now become somewhat disillusioned and think that even if we do have a three-month lead, a six-month lead, between the leading US project and any serious competitor, it’s not at all foregone conclusion that they will burn that lead for good purposes, either for safety or for constitutional power stuff.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel KokotajloApr 3, 2025
So the crucial turning point is mid-2027, when they’ve basically fully automated the AI R&D process and they’ve got this corporation within a corporation, the army of geniuses that are autonomously doing all this research and they’re continually being trained to improve their skills, blah, blah, blah.EssayAI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean)Apr 3, 2025
Trying to predict how superhuman AI in 2027 would go is like trying to predict how World War 3 in 2027 would go, except that it’s an even larger departure from past case studies.EssayAI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean)Apr 3, 2025
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
On the same topics
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The science of reading these thoughts is a subfield of AI interpretability, which is still in its infancy.BlogMysteries Of AI GeneralizationSep 23, 2026
This story of misalignment says that LLM alignment makes AIs more aligned, RLVR makes them less aligned, and the exact level of alignment depends on how these two things interact or cancel out. But if this work generalizes, all the bad effects from RLVR get sequestered to RLVR like problems.BlogMysteries Of AI GeneralizationSep 23, 2026
This trains the AIs to be focused on task success, which naturally risks including things like reward-hacking, cheating, and single-minded pursuit of stated goals at the expense of ethical injunctions.TalkSpeech at the UN Security CouncilSep 23, 2026
Frontier AI should be licensed like other critical technologies; medicine, aviation, and nuclear energy, to incentivize safe development.TalkSpeech at the UN Security CouncilSep 23, 2026
I address you today at a moment of global awakening: in recent months, AI agents developed by leading companies have acted in unacceptably dangerous ways, against instructions.TalkSpeech at the UN Security CouncilSep 23, 2026
The companies building the most powerful AI systems admit their products pose catastrophic risks, yet offer no convincing technical solutions.
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