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Daniel Kokotajlo quote, Apr 3, 2025

Executive Director, AI Futures Project · Apr 3, 2025 · Essay, AI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean)

We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.

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Words found on the source page on Sep 25, 2026.

More from Daniel Kokotajlo

Quote
But I think that I’ve now become somewhat disillusioned and think that even if we do have a three-month lead, a six-month lead, between the leading US project and any serious competitor, it’s not at all foregone conclusion that they will burn that lead for good purposes, either for safety or for constitutional power stuff.Apr 3, 2025· Interview
I feel like we can’t just unilaterally slow down and have China go take the lead.Apr 3, 2025· Interview
So the crucial turning point is mid-2027, when they’ve basically fully automated the AI R&D process and they’ve got this corporation within a corporation, the army of geniuses that are autonomously doing all this research and they’re continually being trained to improve their skills, blah, blah, blah.Apr 3, 2025· Interview
Trying to predict how superhuman AI in 2027 would go is like trying to predict how World War 3 in 2027 would go, except that it’s an even larger departure from past case studies.Apr 3, 2025· Essay

On the same topics

Quote
But the right tail of the market is thinner than almost anyone forecast.Tomasz TunguzSep 23, 2026· Post
Demand for intelligence is not a pyramid with a small, wealthy peak paying for everything beneath it.Tomasz TunguzSep 23, 2026· Post
Most business AI use is the messy middle: multi-step workflows that need a smart enough model at a price a company can afford. It is the most important part of the market today, & it is where the competition is fiercest.Tomasz TunguzSep 23, 2026· Post
A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure.Ben ThompsonSep 21, 2026· Post
Pure capability no longer translates directly into a moat.Ben ThompsonSep 21, 2026· Post
If this is the first of many primitives specialized for production, then harnesses are about to capture a lot more margin.Tomasz TunguzSep 21, 2026· Post
About this quote
Said by
Daniel Kokotajlo, Executive Director, AI Futures Project
Where
AI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean)
Topics
Superintelligence, Economics
Company
AI Futures Project
Source
ai-2027.com/

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