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Daniel Kokotajlo quote, Apr 3, 2025

Executive Director, AI Futures Project · Apr 3, 2025 · Interview, Dwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo

So the crucial turning point is mid-2027, when they’ve basically fully automated the AI R&D process and they’ve got this corporation within a corporation, the army of geniuses that are autonomously doing all this research and they’re continually being trained to improve their skills, blah, blah, blah.

Primary source

Words found on the source page on Sep 25, 2026.

More from Daniel Kokotajlo

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But I think that I’ve now become somewhat disillusioned and think that even if we do have a three-month lead, a six-month lead, between the leading US project and any serious competitor, it’s not at all foregone conclusion that they will burn that lead for good purposes, either for safety or for constitutional power stuff.Apr 3, 2025· Interview
I feel like we can’t just unilaterally slow down and have China go take the lead.Apr 3, 2025· Interview
Trying to predict how superhuman AI in 2027 would go is like trying to predict how World War 3 in 2027 would go, except that it’s an even larger departure from past case studies.Apr 3, 2025· Essay
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.Apr 3, 2025· Essay

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An AI with more real layers can actually be “smarter” in the conventional sense of the term.Scott AlexanderSep 24, 2026· Post
For 100 steps in a row, the AI can shoot delicate subtle ideas from layer to layer at the speed of light. Then there’s one step where it has to encode them into twenty-six glyphs invented by Phoenician turquoise miners in 1800 BC. Then it has to re-encode the Phoenician glyphs into delicate subtle lightspeed ideas before it can do anything else.Scott AlexanderSep 24, 2026· Post
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It is important to not confuse massive steps in inference-time scaling, a dynamic which should be fairly predictable, with being the outputs of RSI, which is highly uncertain.Nathan LambertSep 19, 2026· Post
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About this quote
Said by
Daniel Kokotajlo, Executive Director, AI Futures Project
Where
Dwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo
Topics
Research, Superintelligence
Company
AI Futures Project
Source
dwarkesh.com/p/scott-daniel

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