Home Speakers Daniel Kokotajlo Quote So the crucial turning point is mid-2027, when they’ve basically fully automated the AI R&D process and they’ve got this corporation within a corporation, the army of geniuses that are autonomously doing all this research and they’re continually being trained to improve their skills, blah, blah, blah.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Daniel Kokotajlo Blog Senate Testimony Sept 2026 Oct 2, 2026
They’ll be reliant on AI-generated explanations to understand what’s happening, and everything will be happening faster and faster. Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo Apr 3, 2025
But I think that I’ve now become somewhat disillusioned and think that even if we do have a three-month lead, a six-month lead, between the leading US project and any serious competitor, it’s not at all foregone conclusion that they will burn that lead for good purposes, either for safety or for constitutional power stuff. Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo Apr 3, 2025
I feel like we can’t just unilaterally slow down and have China go take the lead. Essay AI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean) Apr 3, 2025
Trying to predict how superhuman AI in 2027 would go is like trying to predict how World War 3 in 2027 would go, except that it’s an even larger departure from past case studies. Essay AI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean) Apr 3, 2025
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
On the same topics Blog The Future Is for Everyone: Muse for Small Business Sep 29, 2026
Muse is one of the most important products we’ve built for the era of personal superintelligence. Blog The Specter Of Neuralese Sep 24, 2026
An AI with more real layers can actually be “smarter” in the conventional sense of the term. Blog The Specter Of Neuralese Sep 24, 2026
For 100 steps in a row, the AI can shoot delicate subtle ideas from layer to layer at the speed of light. Then there’s one step where it has to encode them into twenty-six glyphs invented by Phoenician turquoise miners in 1800 BC. Then it has to re-encode the Phoenician glyphs into delicate subtle lightspeed ideas before it can do anything else. Blog The Specter Of Neuralese Sep 24, 2026
The science of reading these thoughts is a subfield of AI interpretability, which is still in its infancy. Blog Mysteries Of AI Generalization Sep 23, 2026
This trains the AIs to be focused on task success, which naturally risks including things like reward-hacking, cheating, and single-minded pursuit of stated goals at the expense of ethical injunctions. Blog Why I still haven't bought into true RSI Sep 19, 2026
It is important to not confuse massive steps in inference-time scaling, a dynamic which should be fairly predictable, with being the outputs of RSI, which is highly uncertain. About this quote 
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