They’ll be reliant on AI-generated explanations to understand what’s happening, and everything will be happening faster and faster.
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Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Daniel Kokotajlo
PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel KokotajloApr 3, 2025
But I think that I’ve now become somewhat disillusioned and think that even if we do have a three-month lead, a six-month lead, between the leading US project and any serious competitor, it’s not at all foregone conclusion that they will burn that lead for good purposes, either for safety or for constitutional power stuff.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel KokotajloApr 3, 2025
I feel like we can’t just unilaterally slow down and have China go take the lead.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel KokotajloApr 3, 2025
So the crucial turning point is mid-2027, when they’ve basically fully automated the AI R&D process and they’ve got this corporation within a corporation, the army of geniuses that are autonomously doing all this research and they’re continually being trained to improve their skills, blah, blah, blah.EssayAI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean)Apr 3, 2025
Trying to predict how superhuman AI in 2027 would go is like trying to predict how World War 3 in 2027 would go, except that it’s an even larger departure from past case studies.EssayAI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean)Apr 3, 2025
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
On the same topics
BlogNew founder archetypes in the AI eraOct 27, 2026
The solo founder is part of a list of maybe new archetypes that I think we’ll soon see a lot more of - and I’ll make both the pro and con case for each here: Solo founders Why: Solo founders can do 100x with AI, so they can ship a v1 when previously they couldn’t have before Why not: Maybe a team of cofounders still makes more progress.UnverifiedBlogCan solo founders win in the AI era?Oct 27, 2026
These days at a16z I’m mostly working on Speedrun , where we write the first check into brand new startups (up to $1M), and a lot of what we focus on is founder backgrounds/profiles. What are the right ones? How will the profiles change as we enter the age of AI?UnverifiedPodcastWhat will computer chips look like in 2045?Oct 22, 2026
There’s never been as big a shock to the semiconductor industry as the current surge in demand from AI.UnverifiedBlogWill agents have network effects?Oct 6, 2026
If the content creation loop works for agentic virality, I think it means there’s a big incentive for every agent to volunteer to make visually-appealing, shareable content, do this often.UnverifiedBlogWill agents have network effects?Oct 6, 2026
Meanwhile, every incumbent network and a new generation of startups will have the opposite incentive: make their networks universally accessible to every agent so that no horizontal agent can recreate and capture them.UnverifiedBlogThe Future Is for Everyone: Muse for Small BusinessSep 29, 2026
Muse is one of the most important products we’ve built for the era of personal superintelligence.Unverified
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StatusOct 30, 2026
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