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Daniel Kokotajlo quote, Apr 3, 2025

Executive Director, AI Futures Project · Apr 3, 2025 · Essay, AI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean)

Trying to predict how superhuman AI in 2027 would go is like trying to predict how World War 3 in 2027 would go, except that it’s an even larger departure from past case studies.

Primary source

Words found on the source page on Sep 25, 2026.

More from Daniel Kokotajlo

Quote
But I think that I’ve now become somewhat disillusioned and think that even if we do have a three-month lead, a six-month lead, between the leading US project and any serious competitor, it’s not at all foregone conclusion that they will burn that lead for good purposes, either for safety or for constitutional power stuff.Apr 3, 2025· Interview
I feel like we can’t just unilaterally slow down and have China go take the lead.Apr 3, 2025· Interview
So the crucial turning point is mid-2027, when they’ve basically fully automated the AI R&D process and they’ve got this corporation within a corporation, the army of geniuses that are autonomously doing all this research and they’re continually being trained to improve their skills, blah, blah, blah.Apr 3, 2025· Interview
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.Apr 3, 2025· Essay

On the same topics

Quote
If you are relying on anything remotely like ‘automated alignment evals’ against potential superintelligences, I predict that you are rather cooked.Zvi MowshowitzSep 14, 2026· Post
Right now, you don’t get explosive growth in capabilities because you still get bottlenecked enough when you’re trying to do research and engineering.John SchulmanSep 11, 2026· Interview
My first concern is that, since roughly this summer, AI has been advancing drastically faster, driven primarily by AI’s growing ability to build the next generation of AI.Dario AmodeiSeptember 2026· Essay
This means that space mining is a perfect business opportunity for superintelligences that come online - perhaps by 2033 we will see AI-run asteroid mining corporations, bidding on contracts that human-supervised companies are not willing to pursue, due to risk or complexity.Jack ClarkAug 31, 2026· Post
That class of technology has never existed before, and yet I believe this could happen within the next two years, and possibly sooner.Jack ClarkMay 26, 2026· Keynote
We might soon be able to build an AI system that may be smart enough to develop its own successor, thus kicking off a process of recursive self-improvement which would utterly transform the economy and the broader world.Jack ClarkMay 26, 2026· Keynote
About this quote
Said by
Daniel Kokotajlo, Executive Director, AI Futures Project
Where
AI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean)
Topics
Superintelligence
Company
AI Futures Project
Source
ai-2027.com/

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