Home Speakers Daniel Kokotajlo Quote Trying to predict how superhuman AI in 2027 would go is like trying to predict how World War 3 in 2027 would go, except that it’s an even larger departure from past case studies.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Daniel Kokotajlo Blog Senate Testimony Sept 2026 Oct 2, 2026
They’ll be reliant on AI-generated explanations to understand what’s happening, and everything will be happening faster and faster. Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo Apr 3, 2025
But I think that I’ve now become somewhat disillusioned and think that even if we do have a three-month lead, a six-month lead, between the leading US project and any serious competitor, it’s not at all foregone conclusion that they will burn that lead for good purposes, either for safety or for constitutional power stuff. Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo Apr 3, 2025
I feel like we can’t just unilaterally slow down and have China go take the lead. Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo Apr 3, 2025
So the crucial turning point is mid-2027, when they’ve basically fully automated the AI R&D process and they’ve got this corporation within a corporation, the army of geniuses that are autonomously doing all this research and they’re continually being trained to improve their skills, blah, blah, blah. Essay AI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean) Apr 3, 2025
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
On the same topics Blog The Future Is for Everyone: Muse for Small Business Sep 29, 2026
Muse is one of the most important products we’ve built for the era of personal superintelligence. Blog We Must Pace The Frontier Sep 14, 2026
If you are relying on anything remotely like ‘automated alignment evals’ against potential superintelligences, I predict that you are rather cooked. Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: AI researchers debate how close we are to recursive self-improvement Sep 11, 2026
Right now, you don’t get explosive growth in capabilities because you still get bottlenecked enough when you’re trying to do research and engineering. Essay We Must Pace the Frontier September 2026
My first concern is that, since roughly this summer, AI has been advancing drastically faster, driven primarily by AI’s growing ability to build the next generation of AI. Blog Import AI 471: Why Hugging Face worries Aug 31, 2026
This means that space mining is a perfect business opportunity for superintelligences that come online - perhaps by 2033 we will see AI-run asteroid mining corporations, bidding on contracts that human-supervised companies are not willing to pursue, due to risk or complexity. Talk Import AI 458 / 2026 Cosmos HAI Lab Lecture, Oxford May 26, 2026
That class of technology has never existed before, and yet I believe this could happen within the next two years, and possibly sooner. About this quote Said by Daniel Kokotajlo, Executive Director, AI Futures Project Where AI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean) Topics Superintelligence Company AF AI Futures ProjectSource ai-2027.com/ A quote is one moment, not the whole argument. Read it in context at the source.
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