We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
Words found on the source page on Nov 6, 2026.
More from Daniel Kokotajlo
BlogSenate Testimony Sept 2026Oct 2, 2026
They’ll be reliant on AI-generated explanations to understand what’s happening, and everything will be happening faster and faster.UnverifiedPodcastDwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel KokotajloApr 3, 2025
But I think that I’ve now become somewhat disillusioned and think that even if we do have a three-month lead, a six-month lead, between the leading US project and any serious competitor, it’s not at all foregone conclusion that they will burn that lead for good purposes, either for safety or for constitutional power stuff.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel KokotajloApr 3, 2025
I feel like we can’t just unilaterally slow down and have China go take the lead.PodcastDwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel KokotajloApr 3, 2025
So the crucial turning point is mid-2027, when they’ve basically fully automated the AI R&D process and they’ve got this corporation within a corporation, the army of geniuses that are autonomously doing all this research and they’re continually being trained to improve their skills, blah, blah, blah.EssayAI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean)Apr 3, 2025
Trying to predict how superhuman AI in 2027 would go is like trying to predict how World War 3 in 2027 would go, except that it’s an even larger departure from past case studies.
On the same topics
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Muse is one of the most important products we’ve built for the era of personal superintelligence.UnverifiedBlogThe Most Important Market in AI is the MiddleSep 23, 2026
But the right tail of the market is thinner than almost anyone forecast.BlogThe Most Important Market in AI is the MiddleSep 23, 2026
Demand for intelligence is not a pyramid with a small, wealthy peak paying for everything beneath it.BlogThe Most Important Market in AI is the MiddleSep 23, 2026
Most business AI use is the messy middle: multi-step workflows that need a smart enough model at a price a company can afford. It is the most important part of the market today, & it is where the competition is fiercest.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
A world with sufficient compute is one where intelligence is a commodity, and in commodity markets margin comes from a superior cost structure, which I would expect the leading model providers to have, in part because they have a meaningful lead in scaling and can apply superior AI to their infrastructure.BlogFrontier OverhangsSep 21, 2026
Pure capability no longer translates directly into a moat.
About this quote
- Said by
- Daniel Kokotajlo, Executive Director, AI Futures Project
- Where
- AI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean)
- Topics
- Superintelligence, Economics
- Company
- AFAI Futures Project
- Source
- ai-2027.com/
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