Home Speakers Daniel Kokotajlo Quote Also, it assumes that (uplift-1) will be exponential in ECI, while I expect it to be superexponential (based on how coding uplift evolves in the AI Futures Model, and the fact that I think there is such huge variation in the human range in value of research taste labor (meaning that as more of the gains come from taste, uplift will increase faster)).
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More from Daniel Kokotajlo Blog Verified Compute Allocation Disclosures as a Foundational Governance Tool Nov 10, 2026
I think verifying compute allocations could be extremely valuable, but I’ve been blocked on clear ways to demarcate compute use as “for safety/capabilities R&D/external customers/internal agents/experiments” outside of company judgement. Blog Senate Testimony Sept 2026 Oct 2, 2026
They’ll be reliant on AI-generated explanations to understand what’s happening, and everything will be happening faster and faster. Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo Apr 3, 2025
But I think that I’ve now become somewhat disillusioned and think that even if we do have a three-month lead, a six-month lead, between the leading US project and any serious competitor, it’s not at all foregone conclusion that they will burn that lead for good purposes, either for safety or for constitutional power stuff. Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo Apr 3, 2025
I feel like we can’t just unilaterally slow down and have China go take the lead. Podcast Dwarkesh Podcast: AI 2027 with Scott Alexander and Daniel Kokotajlo Apr 3, 2025
So the crucial turning point is mid-2027, when they’ve basically fully automated the AI R&D process and they’ve got this corporation within a corporation, the army of geniuses that are autonomously doing all this research and they’re continually being trained to improve their skills, blah, blah, blah. Essay AI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean) Apr 3, 2025
Trying to predict how superhuman AI in 2027 would go is like trying to predict how World War 3 in 2027 would go, except that it’s an even larger departure from past case studies. Essay AI 2027 (with Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean) Apr 3, 2025
We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
Changes Status Nov 13, 2026
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